- Predict future prices
- Populate historical gaps
- The API returns forecasted values with
confidence < 1.0 - Once the upstream data is available, Flatpeak back-fills with actual data and updates the value to
1.0
How tariff forecasts work
Flatpeak’s forecasting logic adapts based on the tariff type and the time window in question. Below is a simplified explanation.1. If there are gaps in data
-
FIXED/TIME_OF_DAY
Missing periods are interpolated from surrounding values, using the lowest confidence of the adjacent time blocks. -
MARKET/DYNAMIC
Gaps are filled using extended historical data for the same period taking into account other factors such as weather.
2. If future data is not yet available
-
FIXED/TIME_OF_DAY
Flatpeak extrapolates the known pricing pattern into the future. Forecasts start at0.8confidence and decay by0.2every 90 days, to a floor of0.2. -
MARKET/DYNAMIC
Predictions use a blend of market prices, provider surcharges, weather forecasts and historical patterns.
Historic performance
Expand the sections below to explore Flatpeak forecast accuracy vs actual published market prices, by country (Europe). MAE = Mean Absolute Error.Austria — MAE 10.98%
Austria — MAE 10.98%
Belgium — MAE 9.91%
Belgium — MAE 9.91%
Bulgaria — MAE 18.67%
Bulgaria — MAE 18.67%
Switzerland — MAE 8.79%
Switzerland — MAE 8.79%
Czech Republic — MAE 12.20%
Czech Republic — MAE 12.20%
Germany — MAE 10.26%
Germany — MAE 10.26%
Denmark (DK1) — MAE 11.81%
Denmark (DK1) — MAE 11.81%
Denmark (DK2) — MAE 12.57%
Denmark (DK2) — MAE 12.57%
Estonia — MAE 26.45%
Estonia — MAE 26.45%
Spain — MAE 10.12%
Spain — MAE 10.12%
Finland — MAE 20.84%
Finland — MAE 20.84%
France — MAE 11.05%
France — MAE 11.05%
Greece — MAE 16.40%
Greece — MAE 16.40%
Croatia — MAE 14.20%
Croatia — MAE 14.20%
Hungary — MAE 17.76%
Hungary — MAE 17.76%
Ireland — MAE 16.50%
Ireland — MAE 16.50%
Italy (ALL) — MAE 7.78%
Italy (ALL) — MAE 7.78%
Italy (Centre-North) — MAE 8.47%
Italy (Centre-North) — MAE 8.47%
Italy (Centre-South) — MAE 8.61%
Italy (Centre-South) — MAE 8.61%
Italy (North) — MAE 8.17%
Italy (North) — MAE 8.17%
Italy (Sardinia) — MAE 11.77%
Italy (Sardinia) — MAE 11.77%
Italy (Sicilly) — MAE 10.96%
Italy (Sicilly) — MAE 10.96%
Italy (South) — MAE 8.95%
Italy (South) — MAE 8.95%
Lithuania — MAE 24.68%
Lithuania — MAE 24.68%
Latvia — MAE 24.53%
Latvia — MAE 24.53%
Netherlands — MAE 10.69%
Netherlands — MAE 10.69%
Norway (NO1) — MAE 8.76%
Norway (NO1) — MAE 8.76%
Norway (NO2) — MAE 8.81%
Norway (NO2) — MAE 8.81%
Norway (NO3) — MAE 6.92%
Norway (NO3) — MAE 6.92%
Norway (NO4) — MAE 5.74%
Norway (NO4) — MAE 5.74%
Norway (NO5) — MAE 7.77%
Norway (NO5) — MAE 7.77%
Poland — MAE 12.81%
Poland — MAE 12.81%
Portugal — MAE 10.36%
Portugal — MAE 10.36%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Serbia — MAE 14.98%
Serbia — MAE 14.98%
Sweden (SE1) — MAE 6.70%
Sweden (SE1) — MAE 6.70%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE3) — MAE 10.02%
Sweden (SE3) — MAE 10.02%
Sweden (SE4) — MAE 13.44%
Sweden (SE4) — MAE 13.44%
Slovenia — MAE 13.44%
Slovenia — MAE 13.44%
Slovakia — MAE 14.73%
Slovakia — MAE 14.73%
United Kingdom — MAE 7.18%
United Kingdom — MAE 7.18%
