- Forecast future prices
- Fill historical gaps
- The API returns forecasted prices with
confidence < 1.0 - Once upstream data becomes available, Flatpeak back-filles prices and sets
confidence = 1.0
How tariff forecasts work
Flatpeak’s forecasting logic adapts by data source, tariff type and time horizon. Below is a simplified overview.Gaps in data
| Tariff Type | Handling | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
FIXED/TIME_OF_DAY | Missing intervals are interpolated from adjacent prices. | The lowest confidence of the surrounding time blocks is applied. Value will not exceed 0.9 |
MARKET/DYNAMIC | Missing intervals are reconstructed using extended historical data for the same period, including weather signals. | Confidence is derived from historical and contextual inputs. Value will not exceed 0.8 |
Future data not yet available
| Tariff Type | Handling | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
FIXED/TIME_OF_DAY | Known pricing structures are extrapolated forward. | Starts at 0.8 and decays by 0.2 every 90 days, to a minimum of 0.2. |
MARKET/DYNAMIC | Prices are forecast using market prices, provider surcharges, weather forecasts and historical behaviour. | Forecast confidence never exceeds 0.75. When prices are published while FX markets are closed, such as weekends, the data is returned with a confidence of 0.85, even if the underlying energy price has a confidence of 1. |
Historic performance
Expand the sections below to explore Flatpeak forecast accuracy vs actual published market prices, by country (Europe). MAE = Mean Absolute Error.Austria — MAE 10.98%
Austria — MAE 10.98%
Belgium — MAE 9.91%
Belgium — MAE 9.91%
Bulgaria — MAE 18.67%
Bulgaria — MAE 18.67%
Switzerland — MAE 8.79%
Switzerland — MAE 8.79%
Czech Republic — MAE 12.20%
Czech Republic — MAE 12.20%
Germany — MAE 10.26%
Germany — MAE 10.26%
Denmark (DK1) — MAE 11.81%
Denmark (DK1) — MAE 11.81%
Denmark (DK2) — MAE 12.57%
Denmark (DK2) — MAE 12.57%
Estonia — MAE 26.45%
Estonia — MAE 26.45%
Spain — MAE 10.12%
Spain — MAE 10.12%
Finland — MAE 20.84%
Finland — MAE 20.84%
France — MAE 11.05%
France — MAE 11.05%
Greece — MAE 16.40%
Greece — MAE 16.40%
Croatia — MAE 14.20%
Croatia — MAE 14.20%
Hungary — MAE 17.76%
Hungary — MAE 17.76%
Ireland — MAE 16.50%
Ireland — MAE 16.50%
Italy (ALL) — MAE 7.78%
Italy (ALL) — MAE 7.78%
Italy (Centre-North) — MAE 8.47%
Italy (Centre-North) — MAE 8.47%
Italy (Centre-South) — MAE 8.61%
Italy (Centre-South) — MAE 8.61%
Italy (North) — MAE 8.17%
Italy (North) — MAE 8.17%
Italy (Sardinia) — MAE 11.77%
Italy (Sardinia) — MAE 11.77%
Italy (Sicilly) — MAE 10.96%
Italy (Sicilly) — MAE 10.96%
Italy (South) — MAE 8.95%
Italy (South) — MAE 8.95%
Lithuania — MAE 24.68%
Lithuania — MAE 24.68%
Latvia — MAE 24.53%
Latvia — MAE 24.53%
Netherlands — MAE 10.69%
Netherlands — MAE 10.69%
Norway (NO1) — MAE 8.76%
Norway (NO1) — MAE 8.76%
Norway (NO2) — MAE 8.81%
Norway (NO2) — MAE 8.81%
Norway (NO3) — MAE 6.92%
Norway (NO3) — MAE 6.92%
Norway (NO4) — MAE 5.74%
Norway (NO4) — MAE 5.74%
Norway (NO5) — MAE 7.77%
Norway (NO5) — MAE 7.77%
Poland — MAE 12.81%
Poland — MAE 12.81%
Portugal — MAE 10.36%
Portugal — MAE 10.36%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Romaina — MAE 19.10%
Serbia — MAE 14.98%
Serbia — MAE 14.98%
Sweden (SE1) — MAE 6.70%
Sweden (SE1) — MAE 6.70%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE2) — MAE 6.75%
Sweden (SE3) — MAE 10.02%
Sweden (SE3) — MAE 10.02%
Sweden (SE4) — MAE 13.44%
Sweden (SE4) — MAE 13.44%
Slovenia — MAE 13.44%
Slovenia — MAE 13.44%
Slovakia — MAE 14.73%
Slovakia — MAE 14.73%
United Kingdom — MAE 7.18%
United Kingdom — MAE 7.18%
